Guidance document on evaluating and expressing uncertainty in hazard characterization, 2nd edition

Overview

Guidance on Evaluating and Expressing Uncertainty in Hazard Assessment is available in Harmonization Project Document No. 11, 2nd Edition (2017). The 2nd edition corrects a calculation error in the 1st edition and incorporates a number of minor editorial amendments and an updated reference list. The associated updated spreadsheet “APROBA” is available as an Excel file.

A group of experts, including some of the contributors to Harmonization Project Document No.11, has extended the original APROBA tool to combine the output from the probabilistic hazard characterization with the probabilistic exposure as well. The extended tool has an additional worksheet which allows a user to also enter information on exposure in terms of an uncertainty range. This extended tool permits visualization of the approximate uncertainties in both the hazard characterization and the exposure assessment in a single graph. This additional tool, called APROBA-Plus, is available at the RIVM website.

Further information can be found in the journal article Bokkers et al, 2017