Update: Pa. Gov. Tom Wolf has announced that 12 more counties will move to the green phase on July 26. Click here to read the update.
Original story published on Thursday, June 18 at 6 p.m.:
Eight more Pa. counties moved to the green phase of Gov. Tom Wolf’s coronavirus reopening plan on Friday, June 19, leaving just 13 of the state’s 67 counties still in the yellow phase.
Who could be designated to move to green next Friday, June 26?
We’re expecting an announcement from Wolf and his administration this Friday, based on how things have gone in the past.
Typically, they will declare a certain number of counties to move from one phase to another the Friday before it happens. For example, the ones that advanced today, Dauphin, Franklin, Huntingdon, Luzerne, Monroe, Perry, Pike, and Schuylkill, were given the green light last Friday.
PennLive has been offering predictions on who will move when since counties began leaving the red phase for the yellow one in May. The state uses multiple dashboards and models to make their decisions, and two are available to the public.
One is the Carnegie Melon University report card, which grades counties on a sliding numerical scale that corresponds to colors: Green is good, white is neutral, orange is not so good, and red is bad. The six risk factors it assesses are 14-day case count, commuting, ICU capacity, re-opening contact, population density, and population age. That was last updated for public consumption on June 17.
Additionally, the Department of Health released a county dashboard that shows how an area fares against four major categories:
- Stable, decreasing, or low confirmed case count over the last two weeks compared to the two previous weeks;
- How contacts of confirmed cases are being modeled;
- Having 10 percent or less of the patients tested come back as positive over a 14-day period, and;
- Hospital beds being no more than 90 percent full
Last week’s predictions were off the mark a bit, and in our assessment, it’s because all factors were weighted equally but should not have been.
This week’s adjustment will weigh the “stable, decreasing, or low confirmed case coun over the last two weeks compared to the two previous weeks” metric heavier than any other metric, and we’ll use The New York Times’ interactive chart to determine that. The rest will be used simply as tiebreakers.
All 13 of the Pa. counties still in the yellow phase have been in it for at least 14 days, so none of them are ineligible for advancement simply because of that.
Here’s our breakdown:
Berks has seen a flat or falling case count for a decent amount of time now, and it actually was a perfect four-for-four in the county dashboard last week but wasn’t in the yellow for the required 14 days. The latest CMU data shows concerns about population density risk and ICU capacity, but we’re hardpressed to think that it will stop this county from moving to green next.
Bucks was also four-for-four last week, and it hasn’t seen a spike this week, per the NYT data. Like Berks, it hadn’t spent 14 days in the yellow phase yet. Now it has, and thus should have every reason to advance.
Chester was flagged last week for having too high of a case count, and while things have started to move in the right direction here, it probably hasn’t happened fast enough. It also has a lot of red dots on the most-recent CMU scorecard. We’re predicting that this county will stay in the yellow.
Delaware has had a good stretch in the falling case counts department, and it passed all four metrics on the county dashboard last week. The CMU scorecard has some risk concerns across almost all of the six categories, but they’re orange, and not red, for the most part. We foresee Delaware County making the cut.
Erie is the holder of a bad record: It’s been in yellow longer than anyone, since May 8, and still hasn’t advanced. Two weeks ago, Wolf and Health Department Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine cited concerns about a potential new outbreak occurring there when explaining why it wasn’t in the green yet. Per the NYT tracker, cases have not started to fall yet but have flattened some, and the CMU scorecard offers mixed signals. Statistically speaking, we’d say Erie’s chances of going green are 50/50 at best, but predicatively, we’re going to say that it will.
Lackawanna looks to be in good shape no matter what you look at. An explanation will be required if it does not make the going green list this week.
Lancaster has plenty of discouraging signs on the CMU scorecard, but it met all four metrics last week and didn’t see a spike this week, per the NYT data. We’re hesitant, but are going to say that it will soon join its neighbors already in the green by making this week’s cut.
Lebanon is not going to be so lucky. Its case count is rising, the CMU scorecard is negative, and as of last week, too many people being tested were coming back as positive. If you like to wager on unlikely outcomes with a big payoff, you’d back Lebanon going green. We’re calling that it will stay yellow for now.
Lehigh has one of the best arguments yet to go green: The NYT shows a sustained case count drop, it was four-of-four in last week’s county dashboard, and the CMU scorecard has a red dot only in ICU capacity and population density risks. If we were picking the surest bet to go green, it would rival Lackawanna.
Northampton has all the metrics needed for a move to green. Like some of the other counties on this list, it has no excuse to miss the cut this time around.
Montgomery is something of a coin flip, with a lean toward green. The CMU model does have concerns about its 14-day risk, but the NYT doesn’t show a recent spike, and it actually passed the county dashboard’s June 12 edition. It wouldn’t surprise us to see this county get some more time in the yellow, but we’ll think positively for its residence and say a move to green will happen.
Philadelphia was the first Pa. city to shut down back in March, as local officials elected to put a stay at home order in place before Wolf even could. It’s remained a hot spot, but it has seen a decline in cases, was four-of-four last week, and has similar CMU scorecard metrics to Dauphin County, which advanced last week. Philadelphia couldn’t do so then because it had not spent 14 days in the yellow phase, but now it has. It’s a bit surprising to type this, but it will be unsurprising if the City of Brotherly Love and its county make the green list.
Susquehanna looks destined for more time in the yellow phase. Cases are on the rise, too many people tested positive last week, and it only scores well in commute risk and population density risk on the CMU card. We’ve been wrong before, but more time in the yellow looks applicable here.
Final predictions
You see our work, know our past performance (this author’s is iffy), and can see a pattern emerging with what it takes to move to green.
Our predictions indicate that Berks, Bucks, Delaware, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Northampton, and Philadelphia have a very strong chance to go green June 26.
Our predictions indicate that Erie, Lancaster, and Montgomery have a good chance to move to green on June 26, but not as strong of a chance as the counties listed above.
Our predictions indicate that Chester, Lebanon, and Susquehanna will stay in the yellow for at least another two weeks.
See the county dashboard here, the CMU report here, and the New York Time’s interactive county breakdown here.
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