The dominos that led to Pennsylvania’s worst-ever jobless rate began falling March 13, when it was announced schools would be closed starting the following week.
March 19, in response to the rapidly worsening coronavirus crisis, Gov. Tom Wolf announced all businesses not deemed life-sustaining must close statewide. March 25, the Lehigh Valley was included in a stay-at-home order that eventually expanded across the state.
The unemployment figures released Friday by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry put the statewide jobless rate at 15.1% for April, up 9.3 percentage points from March.
That’s the worst on record since the current methodology was adopted in 1976. The previous record was 12.7% in January and February of 1983. The national unemployment rate for April was 14.7%, up 10.3 percentage points from March.
The Lehigh Valley’s unemployment rate has not been updated for April by either the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry or U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For March, 5.8% of the civilian labor force of 444,200 was out of work in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ Metropolitan Statistical Area. That was up 1.1 percentage points from February, showing “the early effects of COVID-19 and mitigation efforts to contain it,” Labor and Industry said.
In the Lehigh Valley, from the week ending March 21 through May 16, Lehigh County saw 45,431 initial claims for unemployment compensation and Northampton County saw 33,749, for 79,180 total. Statewide during that time, 1.49 million people filed for assistance.
Weekly initial claims have peaked April 4 at 12,498 for Lehigh County and 9,163 for Northampton County.
(Can’t see the above chart? Click here.)
As of Friday, 49 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties have transitioned to the initial, yellow phase of Wolf’s three-tiered plan to restart the state’s economy. The rest of the state, including Lehigh and Northampton counties, is scheduled to follow suit June 5, the day after the stay-at-home order expires.
Provided newly confirmed cases of the COVID-19 continue to fall, yellow-phase counties are expected to transfer to green with more normal operations after two weeks.
Pennsylvanians will still be required to maintain 6 feet of distance from others outside their household and to wear masks for commerce and when social distancing is impossible. Other restrictions on business’ capacity will also continue, and those who can work from home will be encouraged to keep doing so.
State labor officials say they can't predict the future of the unemployment situation, but point to improvements since May 1 when construction became the first industry permitted to resume operating.
"This is the first steps we need to do," state Labor and Industry Secretary W. Gerard "Jerry" Oleksiak said during a conference call with reporters Friday. "We want to make sure everyone is safe. We want to be able to reopen the counties based on the phased-in program that the governor has in place."
In the meantime, signs of frustration with the shuttered economy have begun to show -- even amid newly announced freedoms, such as allowing auto dealers to reopen virtually, the real estate business to resume in-person activities and struggling bars to sell cocktails to go.
In Lehigh County, small-business owner Michael McCreary last week announced a run for the state House over his frustration with having to remain shuttered. Martin Guitar outside Nazareth is the focus of a bipartisan plea to allow manufacturing to resume there. Gym owner Ed Frack announced plans to reopen Sunday despite the shutdown, saying it’s “do or die” time for his business. And on Friday, Becky’s Drive-in in northern Northampton County opened, only close back up again Saturday or risk penalties.
Oleksiak said he shares concerns about the long-term impacts on businesses forced to close down for so long.
"We are already beginning to look forward, what will work look like, what will the economy look like, how will we respond to that as a commonwealth, as government agencies," he said. "This is a situation none of us have ever seen before."
Pennsylvania as of Saturday has confirmed 66,983 cases of COVID-19, and 5,096 people have died.
Our journalism needs your support. Please subscribe today to lehighvalleylive.com.
Kurt Bresswein may be reached at kbresswein@lehighvalleylive.com.