Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Weekly Look Ahead

April 18, 2024 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–5 Day

Over the next 5 days (April 19–23, 2024), more heavy precipitation is expected in the Plains and Midwest. Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota could see upwards of 2.5 inches of precipitation. 

Northeast Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, and western Arkansas could see 1.5 to 2 inches of precipitation. Areas of higher elevation in the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming are also expected to see between 1–2 inches.

6–10 Day

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day outlook (valid April 22–26, 2024) favors above-normal precipitation for southern parts of the U.S., particularly along the eastern Gulf Coast from Texas and Louisiana into parts of Arkansas and Oklahoma. The Northwest and Northeast are leaning towards below-normal precipitation. From the middle of Pennsylvania northward, below-normal precipitation is likely to occur. Hawaii is also leaning towards below-normal precipitation, and Alaska is leaning towards above-normal precipitation. Above-normal temperatures are expected from the West into the High Plains, as well as along the Gulf Coast and Florida. Utah, Nevada, northern Arizona, northern New Mexico, and western Colorado are showing a 70%-80% likelihood of above-normal temperatures. Eastern Alaska is also leaning towards above-normal temperatures. The Mid-Atlantic region, the eastern Midwest, Hawaii, and western Alaska are leaning toward below-normal temperatures. 

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for April 16, 2024, written by Lindsay Johnson and Tsegaye Tadesse (National Drought Mitigation Center).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).