Alabama largely seemed to have recovered from the virus through the spring, posting some of the lowest new case numbers in June since the earliest days of the pandemic.
Then a confluence of events changed everything.
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The arrival of the highly contagious Delta variant, the Fourth of July holiday and the lifting of mask mandates throughout the state appears to have been a dangerous combination. Since the Fourth, the state has seen the 7-day average for new cases surge by more than 500%. Over the same time, hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are up more than 300%, and the state’s positivity rate - the percent of tests performed that come back positive - has climbed to be one of the highest in the nation.
This week alone Alabama added more than 8,600 new cases, according to data from the Alabama Department of Public Health. bringing the state’s 7-day average for new cases up to 1,238. That’s the highest it’s been without backlogs since Feb. 12 of this year.
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As of Friday, the state had added at least 1,300 new cases for four consecutive days - including 1,733 new cases on Friday. That was the most in a single day, without a record-keeping backlog, since Feb. 6. Before this week, the state hadn’t seen four consecutive days of 1,300 or more cases since that same time.
There has also been a sharp increase in hospitalizations this week in Alabama, including on Friday, when the number of patients being treated for the virus shot up to 727.
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That’s still well short of the dire situation seen in Alabama’s hospitals over the winter, when more than 3,000 people were being treated for the virus in state hospitals. But the increase is stark - a jump of 306% from July 3, and the highest hospitalization total since Feb. 25.
The current surge in cases, like hospitalizations, is still well below the high numbers seen in Alabama over the winter. But it closely mirrors the surge from a year ago.
Between July 4 and July 23 of last year, Alabama added more than 32,000 new cases and saw its 7-day average go up by 69%. During the same span this year, Alabama has added fewer cases - just less than 16,000 - but saw a much larger relative increase. The 7-day average for new cases has gone up by over 1,000 cases per day - an increase of 535% - since July Fourth.
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There are key differences between the two bumps, though - in 2020, case numbers were already fairly high heading into July. That wasn’t the case this year.
And testing was higher then, too. Alabama was averaging nearly 14,000 new PCR tests per day during that time in 2020. This year, it has only averaged around 4,000 tests per day in July, according to data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. As a result, Alabama has seen a huge surge in positivity rate recently.
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In mid-June of this year, the state’s 7-day positivity rate on PCR tests - which are the most accurate type of test given, but not necessarily the most common - was the lowest it had been since tracking began back in March of 2020.
Since then, the number jumped to 14.3% as of July 19, the last day for which data was available. That’s the fourth-highest in the nation, and one of only a few times it’s been that high since the start of the pandemic.
The data from HHS doesn’t include antigen tests - the rapid tests that have become more commonplace as the pandemic has gone on. There is some data from ADPH that includes antigen testing - though it’s far from complete. Using their data shows a 14-day average positivity rate of 13.2%.
There are some positives, though - at least for now.
Alabama has not seen an increase in deaths during the latest surge.
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In previous waves, deaths tended to lag behind new cases by two to three weeks, so it may be too early to celebrate just yet. But there are some reasons to be optimistic that we may not see as large an increase in deaths as we are cases.
One reason is that older Alabamians - those 65 and up - are far more likely to be vaccinated against the coronavirus than any other age group. That population is at a higher risk for negative outcomes if they become infected, and a high vaccination rate in that group could help stave off such outcomes.
Meanwhile, even as Alabama remains last in the nation in vaccination rate, a significant portion of its population is already vaccinated. Those people are unlikely to have serious illness even if they do contract COVID-19.
Lastly, doctors in Alabama hospitals have been treating COVID for a year and a half now, and are very well practiced at it. While the treatments aren’t perfect, there are some that are very effective, according to Dr. Rachael Lee UAB Hospital’s epidemiologist and assistant professor in the School of Medicine’s Division of Infectious Diseases.
Where are the new cases?
Alabama’s coast is getting hit the hardest in the state’s fledgling third wave.
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Mobile and Baldwin counties, Alabama’s only coastal counties, are both experiencing the worse per capita outbreaks in Alabama. Mobile County is averaging 5.5 cases per 10,000 residents per day over the last week - the highest number in the state. It also has the highest overall 7-day average at 228 new cases per day.
Baldwin County is right behind Mobile with 5.3 cases per 10,000 residents per day. No other county is seeing more than 5, though several counties in South Alabama are also among those with the worst current case rates. That includes neighbors Dale (4.5 cases per 10,000 per day) and Coffee (4.3) in southeast Alabama.
Do you have an idea for a data story about Alabama? Email Ramsey Archibald at rarchibald@al.com, and follow him on Twitter @RamseyArchibald. Read more Alabama data stories here.