Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): El Niño currently, La Niña likely by summer
According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), El Niño is still present in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, but is continuing to weaken. The latest ENSO models show a transition to neutral conditions during the April-May-June period (85% chance). A “La Niña Watch” has been issued because there are higher chances of La Niña (60%) by the June-July-August period compared to neutral (39%), and the likelihood of La Niña increases into next fall and winter. The developing La Niña is unlikely to have much of an effect on our summer weather.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC one month temperature outlook for May indicates higher chances of above normal temperatures statewide. The odds of above normal temperatures are relatively high and between 50 and 60% on the three-tiered scale. The May precipitation outlook indicates higher chances of below normal precipitation across the northern tier of the state. The rest of the state has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal May precipitation.
The three-month outlook for May through July (MJJ) has a high probability of above normal temperatures across all of Washington State, with the odds between 40 and 60% on the three-tiered scale depending on location. For precipitation, there are higher chances of below normal precipitation statewide. The chances of below normal precipitation are greater for northeastern Washington (between 40 and 50%) compared to lesser odds for the rest of the state (between 33 and 40%).
Last Updated: 4/18/2024
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.
- The Current State of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of U.S. Climate Anomalies
